For each case of coronaviruse suggested by a new study, there are five or 10 other cases.
A Seoul health worker waited at a coronavirus control center earlier this month. Scientists monitoring the spread of coronavirus informed that in every confirmed case, there are other five to 10 people with unsafe infections in the community. These lighter cases are, on average, half as infectious as confirmed, but account for nearly 80% of new cases, according to the report, based on Chinese data.
The researchers modeled the natural spread of the virus in China, before the government implemented an aggressive travel ban and testing policy. At that time, from December last year to the end of January, 7 were not detected in 7 cases. This situation is similar to the situation in the United States and other Western countries, as studies are not widely available, researchers said.
“If we have 3,500 confirmed cases in the US, you will actually see 35,000,” said Jeffrey Shaman, lead author of the new report published by Columbia University’s Epidemiologist and Science journal.
At a news conference on Monday, scientists representing more than a dozen organizations monitoring the disease highlighted the importance of expanding the study.
“The implementation of large-scale testing is crucial,” said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a biostatistics professor at the University of Washington and principal investigator at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “And it’s important to develop affordable tests so that people can be tested when they need to be there.”
The new study was based on data on infections and mobility documented in China, as well as a model of population-based social interaction to estimate the number of undocumented cases, as well as infection rates. He announced that, after the Chinese government exploded on January 23, closing half of the breakdown and spreading the evidence, the picture was completely changed. Over time, the study identified 60% of positive cases, up from 14%.
The work brought together authors from five organizations, including Imperial College London, Beijing Tsinghua University and Hong Kong University.
Scientists have noted that the number of cases confirmed has changed twice. Unidentified cases in China that proliferated prior to the blockade, although reported to be on average contagious, have not necessarily led to more recent cases being infected, researchers said.
“Just because you contacted the virus from someone whose own is mild does not mean yours will be mild,” said Dr. Shaman. “You might still end up in the I.C.U.”
Wash your hands often and engage in social distancing.